Burdekin Regional Water Assessment

The Issue

The objective of the Queensland Government’s RWA program is to assess, at the regional level, long-term infrastructure and non-infrastructure requirements to meet agricultural, industrial, and urban water demands across Queensland. The Burdekin RWA, which received funding support from the NWGF, had a specific focus on the environmentally and culturally sustainable use of water resources and supplying water to facilitate the expansion of agricultural production and the development of a green hydrogen industry.

The Burdekin Basin covers approximately 130,000 square kilometres, around 7.5 per cent of Queensland’s total land area. The region is characterised by diverse geography, with a broad range of agricultural and industrial water uses throughout the region, including largescale sugarcane production in the Burdekin Delta, intensive horticulture production in the Bowen-Gumlu district, coal production in the Northern Bowen Basin, and critical mineral production throughout the region. Furthermore, there are also potential growth opportunities in several water-intensive industries, including green hydrogen at Townsville and Abbot Point and Sustainable Aviation Fuel production in the Townsville region.

These water demands are driven by a range of different supply and demand-side factors that need to be considered in developing a region-wide perspective of long-term industrial and agricultural water demand – the key focus of the Service Need Assessment for the Burdekin RWA.

In addition, given the geographic distribution of the current and prospective water demands, the Service Need Assessment also needed to have regard for the extent to which the outputs from the assessment could inform firstly, the shortlisting of water supply options, and secondly, the analysis of the options in Stage 2 of the RWA.

The Solution

To address the challenges detailed above and ensure the Service Need Assessment provided a fit-for-purpose assessment of long-term water demand in the Burdekin region, Synergies developed a probabilistic water demand model for agricultural and industrial water demand in the region.

Probabilistic modelling involves developing demand forecasts that are underpinned by robust analysis of the key factors driving long-term demand for the commodity, noting water is a derived demand. The probabilistic approach provides an appropriate framework for incorporating uncertainty regarding key demand drivers, with the model producing a range of demand forecasts to inform the identification of service needs and analysis of options.

The development of the probabilistic demand model was informed by extensive desktop and market analysis and stakeholder consultation across the sugarcane, coal mining, critical mineral mining, horticulture, logistics, and renewable energy sectors. This analysis and consultation informed firstly, the identification of the key demand drivers for each commodity included in the demand model, and secondly, the appropriate values to be included in the model (most likely, low, high).

Probabilistic water demand estimates were then produced over a 30-year outlook period. This was completed utilising the Monte Carlo simulation technique, with 5,000 scenarios modelled. Outputs were presented in P10, ‘Most Likely’ and P90 terms. This essentially provides a range of possible demands, noting the ‘most likely’ profile represents the demand profile derived by the model based on the central estimates across all demand model parameters.

Urban water demands were also assessed and material urban water security risks identified, based on long-term Queensland Government population projections

The Service Need Assessment also categorised demands into sub-regional demands, based on the viable locations for the modelled demands. For example, while the demand for various horticulture crops was modelled region-wide, the demand model outputs were distilled into sub-regional demands to inform the shortlisting and analysis of options in the subsequent stages of the RWA. This involved assessing the key factors driving the location of the identified demands, including the location of current activities, resources, location of agronomically suitable land, and location of key infrastructure.

Subsequent to the completion of the Service Need Assessment, Synergies was also subsequently engaged to undertake the economic and financial analysis of the shortlisted options in Stage 2 of the RWA. This included undertaking robust cost-benefit analysis to assess the economic feasibility of shortlisted options, and financial modelling to estimate the net cost to government for each option.

The Benefits

The approach adopted to deriving long-term water demand profiles in the Service Need Assessment provided the Department with a comprehensive range of 30-year water demand profiles at the industry and sub-regional level. These demand profiles directly informed the identification of priority service needs in the Investment Logic Mapping workshop and the shortlisting of infrastructure and non-infrastructure water supply options for analysis in Phase 2 of the RWA. The probabilistic framework adopted to model the long-term demands also provided the Department with a meaningful range in terms of the growth outlook for various water demands, reflecting the uncertainty that exists in relation to key demand drivers.

Synergies’ robust economic and financial analysis of the shortlisted options was incorporated into the final report for the Burdekin RWA, which was released for public consultation in July 2025.

Contact

To find out more about this project and how Synergies can assist you, send an email to: contactus@synergies.com.au