10 December, 2025
Synergies assisted Sunwater with the peer review of the water demand assessment and economic analysis for the Paradise Dam Improvement Project Detailed Business Case. The scope of works included a detailed review of the methodology and quantitative analysis underpinning the demand forecasts developed in the DBC, in addition to a review of the robustness and accuracy of the economic analysis of the reference project options. The peer review was undertaken in accordance with Stage 3 of the Queensland Government’s Business Case Development Framework (BCDF).
Repair works undertaken following major flooding events in 2011 and 2013 identified significant structural deficiencies with the Paradise Dam wall, which is located within Sunwater’s Bundaberg Water Supply Scheme (WSS). The dam was subsequently assessed as not compliant with the ANCOLD Dam Safety Guidelines and hence requiring a major dam safety upgrade.
The initial response to the non-compliance was to drop the Full Supply Level (FSL) in Paradise Dam and conduct initial refurbishment works to partially lower the dam failure risk. While these works significantly reduced the risk and hence economic cost associated with the potential failure of Paradise Dam, it did not address the dam’s non-compliance with the ANCOLD regulatory requirements.
Hence, Sunwater undertook an assessment of several options for the improvement of Paradise Dam, including reinstatement of the FSL of the dam and the decommissioning of the dam and rehabilitation of the natural environment and habitat. These options were assessed in the DBC against a ‘do nothing’ base case.
A detailed water demand assessment was undertaken as part of the Service Need Assessment for the DBC, in addition to a cost-benefit analysis of the reference project options. Synergies was appointed as the peer reviewer for these two components, noting the significant funding requirement associated with the project.
Synergies conducted a thorough review of the water demand assessment undertaken for the DBC. The scope of the review included both the robustness of the approach and model framework and the accuracy and appropriateness of the individual demand model parameters and model outputs.
Synergies adopted a collaborative approach in reviewing the demand model, with the objective being to highlight potential issues for discussion with Sunwater and the lead consultant. The review focused on the demand model parameters applied to derive probabilistic outputs in relation to agricultural demand. Specifically, the initial review identified potential gaps in the market analysis for several key agricultural commodities in the demand profile, including macadamias, avocados, sugarcane, and vegetable crops.
Synergies liaised with the lead consultant to enhance the narrative in the water demand assessment report in relation to the long-term outlook for key agricultural markets, in addition to revising the parameter estimates for several of the demand model parameters, including forecast land use change rates and irrigation application rates for specific crops.
For the economic analysis, the peer review focused on substantiating the robustness of the assessment and quantification of the economic benefits and costs. This included a detailed review of the parameters and parameter estimates applied to quantify the probability-adjusted economic cost of the dam failure risk. This review focused on the approach to the estimation of the social/intangible costs of dam failure. Synergies also reviewed the parameters applied to quantify the economic benefits of agricultural water use in the scheme, identifying several revisions to crop-specific parameters including yield, price, farm capital and equipment costs, and irrigation application rates.
Our team’s collaborative approach to the peer review ensured a constructive outcome for Sunwater. Working with the lead consultant, the peer review served to enhance the robustness of the demand and economic modelling and further develop the narrative supporting the analysis in the DBC chapters. The DBC was revised to include a modelling scenario reflecting the results of the peer review of the demand assessment (i.e. revised demand model parameter estimates).
Synergies prepared concise draft and final peer review reports for both the water demand assessment and economic analysis. An iterative comment register was also prepared and updated to provide the project team with a comprehensive record of the issues identified, changes proposed, and changes implemented throughout the peer review process. The outcomes from the peer review were presented to members of the Sunwater Executive Leadership Team.
To find out more about this project and how Synergies can assist you, send an email to: contactus@synergies.com.au